Work

Future cropland and population exposures to extreme dry spells in global land monsoon regions

Year: 2025

Type: article

Abstract: Global land monsoon (GM) regions. Understanding future cropland and population exposures to extreme dry spells is very important for agricultural activities and freshwater resources management. However, future changes in extreme dry spells and associated cropland and population exposures are still unclear in GM regions. Here, we explored future changing patterns of extreme dry spells, and investigated future cropland and population exposures to extreme dry spells in GM regions. Extreme dry spells will become much more frequency in the future, especially in North American, South American, and South African monsoon regions. Cropland exposure will increase rapidly in a warmer climate in South American, South African, North American, North African, and Southeast Asian monsoon regions, which will be mainly caused by climate and interaction effects. Population exposure will become higher in most parts of GM regions during the middle-term and long-term periods, and evident in a warmer climate. The increased population exposure will be determined by climate effect in South American, North American, and Southeast Asian monsoon regions, and will be jointly dominated by climate and interaction effects in South African, North African, and Australian monsoon regions. The results can provide scientific basis for limiting low-emission scenarios to better handle the potential risk of cropland and population exposures to extreme dry spells under future climate change. • Extreme dry spells will likely become much more frequency in many parts. • Cropland exposure will increase in many parts in a warm future climate. • Cropland exposure will be mainly caused by climate and interaction effects. • Population exposure will become higher in most parts in a warmer future climate. • The increased population exposure will be determined by climate effect in many parts.

Source: Journal of Hydrology Regional Studies

DOI: 10.1016/j.ejrh.2025.102986