Geospatial mapping and prediction of informal settlement growth in Addis Ababa using GIS and logistic regression model
Year: 2025
Type: article
Abstract: Informal settlements (ISs), characterized by unauthorized occupation and construction without legal recognition, represent a critical urban challenge in rapidly developing cities like Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, where 23.8% of the urban population resides in ISs, driving substantial socio-economic and environmental losses. This study integrates Geographic Information Systems (GIS) and Logistic Regression (LR) modeling to map historical IS growth (2002–2022) using SPOT 5, 6 and Sentinel-2 imagery and project future expansion to 2042. Findings reveal a 224% increase in IS area from 2,260.5 ha (2002) to 7,329.5 ha (2022), primarily converting farmland and open spaces. The validated LR model (Kappa = 0.73, Pseudo-R 2 = 0.32) identified proximity to existing ISs (strongest positive influence; OR = 0.45, p < 0.001), distance to roads (negative influence; OR = 0.74, p < 0.01), and low population density (positive influence; OR = 1.65, p < 0.05) as statistically significant drivers. Projections under current trends indicate IS expansion to 11,483.5 ha (95% CI 10,850 –12,117 ha) by 2032 and 18,557.9 ha (95% CI) by 2042, with uncertainty quantified through sensitivity analysis and assuming static driver conditions. Model robustness also confirmed via spatial validation and advanced error metrics (quantity/allocation disagreement 10%). The study underscores regulatory inefficacy and urges spatially targeted interventions particularly protecting vulnerable public lands in high-probability peri-urban peripheries providing an evidence base for adaptive urban policy reform in Addis Ababa.
Source: Discover Environment
Language: English
Subfield: Urban Studies
Field: Social Sciences
Domain: Social Sciences
Open Access status: gold
Estimated APC paid: $1,390
Funder: Wollega University
OpenAlex ID: W4416767719