Work

Temporal trends and future projections of six major cancers among women of childbearing age in northeast Asia: analysis of data from the global burden of disease study 2021

Year: 2025

Type: article

Abstract: Background: Cancer among women of childbearing age (WCBA) imposes major health and socioeconomic burdens, yet integrated assessments of temporal trends and future projections in Northeast Asia (NEA) are limited. Methods: Using Global Burden of Disease 2021 estimates, we quantified incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for breast, cervical, uterine, ovarian, colorectal (CRC), and tracheal, bronchus, and lung (TBL) cancers among women of childbearing age (WCBA; 15-49 years) in six Northeast Asia countries from 1990-2021. We calculated age-standardized incidence, mortality and DALY rates, temporal odds ratios for the proportion of WCBA among all female cases, estimated annual percentage changes (EAPCs), and mortality-to-incidence ratios (MIRs), referencing a 46.6% threshold. Age-standardized incidence and mortality rates to 2050 were projected using Bayesian age-period-cohort models fitted with integrated nested Laplace approximation. Findings: = 0.967, 95% CI: 0.965-0.969). MIRs remained below the 46.6% threshold for breast and cervical cancers, while TBL cancers persistently exceeded it (β = -0.006, 95% CI: -0.007 to -0.006). From 1990-2021, ASIRs increased for breast, cervical (EAPC = 1.58%, 95% CI: 1.49 to 1.66), cervical, and uterine cancers but decreased for ovarian cancer decreased (EAPC = -0.44%, 95% CI: -0.53 to -0.36). ASMRs declined for all cancers, most sharply for uterine cancer (EAPC = -2.38%, 95% CI: -2.68 to -2.09). ASDRs declined across cancers, most prominently for CRC (EAPC = -2.30%, 95% CI: -2.49 to -2.12). Projections to 2050 indicate continued increases in breast and uterine cancer incidence, stabilization of CRC and TBL incidence, and a sustained high cervical cancer burden in Mongolia and DPRK. Breast, uterine, and TBL cancer mortality are projected to remain stable. Interpretation: Although mortality and DALYs among WCBA in NEA have improved, rising breast and uterine cancer incidence, persistently high lung cancer MIRs remain major concerns. Strengthened tobacco control and air-quality policies, expanded HPV vaccination and cervical screening, promotion of healthy lifestyles, and equitable access to early diagnosis and treatment are essential to reduce cross-country disparities in cancer outcomes among WCBA.

Source: Frontiers in Oncology

DOI: 10.3389/fonc.2025.1716310