Work

Climate Change Agricultural Comparative Advantage and the US Trade Balance

Year: 2025

Type: article

Abstract: ABSTRACT Current science indicates that warming and elevated atmospheric CO 2 will have ambiguous results for crop productivity depending on crop type and geographic location, whereas increased heat stress makes livestock and human labor less productive. The differential impacts across regions will alter comparative advantage and shift the patterns of global trade. This paper employs an economywide trade model to assess all three types of productivity shocks under a 3°C global warming scenario. We find that the widening agricultural trade deficits persist, even as the overall US trade balance improves due to enhanced investment inflows.

Source: Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy

DOI: 10.1002/aepp.70041

Authors: Elizabeth A. Fraysse, Thomas W. Hertel, Roman Keeney

Institution: Purdue University West Lafayette

Language: English

Topic: Climate change impacts on agriculture

Subfield: Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics

Field: Agricultural and Biological Sciences

Domain: Life Sciences

SDGs: Climate action, Zero hunger, Decent work and economic growth

Open Access status: hybrid

Estimated APC paid: $3,750