Work

Revisiting Hazard Ratios: Can We Define Causal Estimands for Time‐Dependent Treatment Effects?

Year: 2025

Type: article

Abstract: ABSTRACT In this paper, some aspects concerning the causal interpretation of hazard contrasts are revisited. It is first investigated, in which sense the hazard ratio constitutes a causal effect. It is demonstrated that the hazard ratio at a timepoint represents a causal effect for the population at baseline, but in general not for any population at risk at time . Moreover, the scenario is studied, in which the survival curves coincide up to some timepoint and then separate. This investigation provides valuable insight both on the causal interpretation of the conventional hazard ratio and on properties of the recently proposed causal hazard ratio. The findings suggest that, without making further assumptions, there is in general no meaningful estimand for a treatment effect at time . It is therefore advocated to develop alternative estimands grounded in medically plausible assumptions about the joint distribution of counterfactual survival times.

Source: Biometrical Journal

DOI: 10.1002/bimj.70100

Author: Dominic Edelmann

Institution: German Cancer Research Center

Language: English

Topic: Advanced Causal Inference Techniques

Subfield: Statistics and Probability

Field: Mathematics

Domain: Physical Sciences

SDG: Good health and well-being

Open Access status: hybrid

Estimated APC paid: $3,740