The Perception Problem of Crime Statistics: A Hate Crime Case Study of Diverging data trends
Year: 2025
Type: article
Abstract: This article examines diverging trends in hate crime using two key data sources: Police Recorded Crime data and the Crime Survey for England and Wales (CSEW). While police data indicates hate crime has increased by over 300% since 2011, CSEW estimates suggest a decrease of around 30% over the same period. These contrasting trends are further explored through an analysis of violent crime, which displays similar discrepancies between data sources. Although recent Home Office publications acknowledge limitations in the reliability of police-recorded hate crime trends, this nuance has not been reflected in public discourse with senior politicians, police leaders, and media outlets frequently cite a ‘rise’ in hate crime. These contrasting trends point to multiple possible explanations, including changes in recording practices, reporting behaviour, and the nature of offending, rather than providing definitive evidence of underlying prevalence. When police data are presented as evidence of rising hate crime, they can distort public understanding and influence policy and policing priorities in ways not fully supported by triangulated evidence.
Source: Evidence Base
Author: Hannah Shackleton
Institution: University of Leeds
Language: English
Subfield: Sociology and Political Science
Field: Social Sciences
Domain: Social Sciences
Open Access status: hybrid
OpenAlex ID: W4416822080
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