Work

Optimal sizing of renewable hybrid power plants considering component reliability as a multi-discipline optimization under uncertainty

Year: 2025

Type: article

Abstract: The sizing of grid-connected hybrid power plants (HPPs), integrating wind, photovoltaics (PV), and battery storage, is critical for optimizing economic performance. Traditional sizing approaches typically assume ideal component availability, neglecting failure and repair processes, which can lead to overestimated financial projections. This paper develops a stochastic reliability model to simulate component downtimes over the plant’s lifetime, considering wind turbines, PV strings, PV inverters, battery systems, and transformers. The sizing problem is formulated as a multi-disciplinary optimization under uncertainty, incorporating 13 design variables, including wind turbine rated power, number of turbines, installation density, PV capacity, and inverter size etc. The optimization aims to maximize the weighted average of expected net present value (NPV) over capital expenditure (CAPEX) and the conditional value-at-risk of NPV over CAPEX. The proposed methodology is applied to case studies in a Danish and a French site with diverse weather conditions to compare deterministic and stochastic sizing approaches. Results demonstrate that incorporating component reliability in the sizing process improves the NPV over CAPEX by 2.5% and 2.8% for the two sites, respectively, indicating an improved investment efficiency.

Source: Applied Energy

DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2025.127138

Authors: Rujie Zhu, Juan Pablo Murcia Leon, Mikkel Friis-Møller, Megha Gupta, Kaushik Das

Institution: Technical University of Denmark

Language: English

Topic: Hybrid Renewable Energy Systems

Subfield: Energy Engineering and Power Technology

Field: Energy

Domain: Physical Sciences

SDGs: Affordable and clean energy, Industry, innovation and infrastructure, Climate action

Open Access status: hybrid

Estimated APC paid: $4,430