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Does agricultural insurance promote the new-quality productivity? Evidence from double machine learning

Year: 2025

Type: article

Abstract: Agricultural new-quality productivity is central to high-quality agricultural transformation. As the sector's main risk-management instrument, agricultural insurance and its transmission mechanisms merit careful study. Drawing on a balanced panel of 284 prefecture-level and above cities in China for 2008–2023 and machine-learning methods, this paper estimates the effect of agricultural insurance on new-quality productivity and traces its channels. The results show that agricultural insurance significantly promotes new-quality productivity. The effect operates through three mechanisms: attracting agricultural firms and improving the production environment; optimizing labor allocation and raising factor efficiency; and fostering technological innovation that strengthens overall productive capacity. Heterogeneity checks show a stronger effect in the central and western regions, in major grain-producing and supply–demand-balanced areas, and in regions with moderate disaster exposure or low-to-moderate incidence of extreme weather. These findings provide theoretical and empirical grounds for leveraging agricultural insurance to promote high-quality agricultural development and boost new-quality productivity.

Source: International Review of Economics & Finance

DOI: 10.1016/j.iref.2025.104797

Authors: Xiaoqian Cui, Chunmiao Yu, Jing Zhou

Institutions: Shanghai University of Finance and Economics, Anhui University of Science and Technology, Xinyang Normal University

Language: English

Topic: Agricultural risk and resilience

Subfield: Soil Science

Field: Agricultural and Biological Sciences

Domain: Life Sciences

SDGs: Zero hunger, Decent work and economic growth, Industry, innovation and infrastructure

Open Access status: gold

Estimated APC paid: $1,930