Work

The role of vaccination roll-out in the monitoring of Covid-19 pandemic spread: A country-level quantitative study

Year: 2025

Type: article

Abstract: Early detection of contagion surge phases that could potentially mark the beginning of new waves is crucial to monitor the pandemic development and to define proper health policies. The potential availability of reliable covariates can effectively support the monitoring of the pandemic development and provide early warning signals. This paper combines epidemic surge detection with the study of the role of vaccination roll-out, by improving and enhancing the methodology introduced by Agosto and Cerchiello (2024). A covariate-augmented version of the BSADF test for the detection of explosive patterns in time series, named CBSADF test, is used to identify whether the time series of the effective reproduction number moves to explosive behavior, indicating a potential upcoming wave, conditioned on the evolution of the vaccination roll-out. By applying our method to a representative set of European countries, we show that the model can effectively identify upcoming exponential increases in the effective reproduction number and the interplay with the vaccination roll-out.

Source: Physica A Statistical Mechanics and its Applications

DOI: 10.1016/j.physa.2025.131160

Authors: Arianna Agosto, Paola Cerchiello, Siegfried Eisenberg, Thomas Czypionka

Institutions: University of Pavia, Institut für Höhere Studien - Institute for Advanced Studies (IHS), London School of Economics and Political Science

Language: English

Topic: COVID-19 epidemiological studies

Subfield: Modeling and Simulation

Field: Mathematics

Domain: Physical Sciences

SDG: Good health and well-being

Open Access status: hybrid

Estimated APC paid: $3,550