Work

Bioeconomy and Climate Change: The Scenarios of Food Insecurity in Brazil’s Northern Region (Amazon) Due to the Shift from Traditional Table Crops to Globally Valued Commodities

Year: 2025

Type: article

Abstract: Climate variability directly influences agriculture, especially in a scenario of global change and transition to a sustainable bioeconomy. This study analyzed historical series (1994-2023) of productivity and harvested area of annual crops (corn, cassava, and beans) and perennial crops (pineapple, cocoa, annatto, avocado, and guava), in order to understand the relationship between rainfall, maximum temperature, and agricultural production in northern Brazil. To achieve this, the Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) test was applied to verify the stationarity of the series, and principal component analysis (PCA) was used to identify correlation patterns between climate and production variables. The ADF test showed that annual precipitation is stationary, while maximum temperature is non-stationary, confirming a warming trend. Among the crops, only bean productivity was stationary, albeit at low levels, while corn, cassava, and cocoa showed non-stationary behavior, reflecting technological advances combined with climatic pressures. PCA indicated different responses: corn showed a positive association with temperature, but signs of recent stagnation, whereas cassava and beans depended more on precipitation, demonstrating vulnerability to drought. Among perennials, avocado and guava responded positively to increased temperature, while annatto and pineapple were more dependent on rainfall. Cocoa showed a balanced correlation with both variables. It can be concluded that climate impacts on agriculture are heterogeneous and require specific adaptive strategies. From a bioeconomy perspective, the importance of productive diversification, technological innovation, and public policies aimed at climate resilience and the sustainability of low-carbon value chains is highlighted.

Source: Foods

DOI: 10.3390/foods14234146