Quantifying zonal interdependencies in Urban Land Valuation: A novel geospatial model of infrastructure density and road network synergies
Year: 2025
Type: article
Abstract: • This study presents a novel spatial framework for modelling urban land valuation. • The model captured the influence of transportation and public amenities on land value. • The Proximity Integration Index predicted 68 % of the variance in the land value. • The analysis found inflation in core areas and decline in peripheral zones. • These findings prioritize networks and facility allocation over monocentric models. In the field of global urban economics, the density of transportation infrastructure and distribution of public amenities significantly impact land valuation. Nonetheless, a methodological gap persists in modelling these spatial determinants. This study seeks to address this gap by introducing a spatial econometric framework that recalibrates existing land-valuation methodologies. Our framework integrates infrastructure-mediated agglomeration economies with spatial impedance dynamics to quantify the value hotspots induced by facility concentration and accessibility premiums. The model's dual-kernel design captures centrifugal decay from centrality while incorporating neighborhood synergies, establishing a paradigm in which polycentric attraction forces interact with facility distributions and transport infrastructure. Utilising Kuwait's urban landscape as a case study, cadastral data across 137 zones provided predictors: a Proximity Integration Index (combining road connectivity and facility access) and a Composite Infrastructure Index (reflecting amenity concentration). Following validation through spatial autocorrelation analysis and machine learning interpretability, the results indicate that the Proximity Integration Index is the primary predictor, demonstrating a relative predictive importance of 68 % based on SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) analysis, and doubling the explanatory power of central business district proximity. Spatial diagnostics reveal valuation distortions, with inflation in infrastructure-saturated cores and depressions in underserved peripheries. The Composite Regional Integration and Local Vitality Index confirmed the relationship between accessibility integration and facility density. These findings suggest prioritizing interconnected transport networks and strategic facility allocation over monocentric development. This study provides urban planners with an analytical framework for optimizing infrastructure allocation, enhancing land value capture, and advancing sustainable urbanisation, particularly in the Global South.
Source: Sustainable Futures
Author: Shawky Mansour
Institution: Kuwait University
Language: English
Topic: Urban Planning and Valuation
Subfield: Management, Monitoring, Policy and Law
Field: Environmental Science
Domain: Physical Sciences
Open Access status: gold
Estimated APC paid: $2,340
OpenAlex ID: W4416976338