Temporal trends in acute kidney injury-related mortality across 43 countries, 1996–2021, with projections up to 2050: a global time series analysis and modelling study
Year: 2025
Type: article
Abstract: Background: Acute kidney injury (AKI) is a major global public health concern. However, a major challenge in addressing the AKI burden is the lack of global data on AKI-related mortality and its predictions, leaving significant limitations in understanding its trends over time. Therefore, we aimed to estimate AKI-related mortality rate trends and forecast future deaths. Methods: We evaluated the temporal trends in age-standardized AKI-related mortality from 1996 to 2021 across 43 countries using the World Health Organization Mortality Database, with future projections through to 2050. Temporal trends were assessed based on age-standardized mortality rates, and future projections up to 2050 were calculated using a predictive model that considered attributable risk factors from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021. Results: Age-standardized AKI-related mortality rate per 1,000,000 people remained stable from 1996 to 2021 (10.47 [95% confidence interval (CI), 8.84-12.11] to 9.94 [95% CI, 8.32-11.57]). Although age-standardized mortality rates were lower in high-income countries (HICs) compared to low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), HICs exhibited a modest but statistically significant increasing trend (from 5.83 per 1,000,000 people [95% CI, 4.21-7.46] to 7.30 [95% CI, 5.66-8.95]), whereas LMICs showed a declining trend (from 19.66 [95% CI, 16.78-22.53] to 15.33 [95% CI, 12.37-18.29]). Projections indicate that mortality will rise to 11.36 per 1,000,000 population (95% CI, 10.65-12.07) by 2050, primarily attributable to population aging. Conclusion: This global time-series modeling study highlights rising AKI-related mortality in HICs and/or aging populations. These findings underscore the need for targeted interventions to mitigate future AKI-related deaths.
Institutions: Kyung Hee University, Kyung Hee University Medical Center, Biruni University, Anglia Ruskin University, Inserm, Université Paris Cité, Instituto de Salud Carlos III, Centro de Investigación Biomédica en Red de Salud Mental, Assistance Publique – Hôpitaux de Paris, Hôpital Fernand-Widal, Hôpital Lariboisière, Parc Sanitari Sant Joan de Déu, Equipe de Recherche en Epidémiologie Nutritionnelle, Centre de Recherche Épidémiologie et Statistique
Language: English
Topic: Acute Kidney Injury Research
Subfield: Nephrology
Field: Medicine
Domain: Health Sciences
Open Access status: diamond
OpenAlex ID: W4416984116