Work

Interplay between ground deformation and seismicity during the 2005–2025 unrest at Campi Flegrei

Year: 2025

Type: article

Abstract: We investigate the relationship between the cumulative number of earthquakes and ground uplift at the Campi Flegrei caldera (South Italy) during the ongoing unrest (2005-present). While previous studies have explored this correlation, we propose a nonlinear epidemic model that captures new features of the caldera system. Our model describes earthquakes' occurrence as a cascading process driven by ground deformation. The nonlinearity reflects the reduced efficiency of the triggering mechanism, which contributes to the short duration of seismic swarms. This mechanism may represent a general framework for understanding the occurrence of volcanic earthquakes worldwide.

Source: Scientific Reports

DOI: 10.1038/s41598-025-27259-4

Authors: Cataldo Godano, Vincenzo Convertito, Anna Tramelli, Giuseppe Petrillo

Institutions: University of Campania "Luigi Vanvitelli", Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, INGV Osservatorio Vesuviano, Nanyang Technological University, Earth Observatory of Singapore

Language: English

Topic: earthquake and tectonic studies

Subfield: Geophysics

Field: Earth and Planetary Sciences

Domain: Physical Sciences

Open Access status: gold

Estimated APC paid: $2,690

Funder: European Commission