Work

Quantification and forecasting of reserve capacity from electric trains

Year: 2025

Type: article

Abstract: This paper explores the quantification and forecasting of reserve capacity from electric trains for participation in power system ancillary service markets. We first map train electricity consumption—traction and non-traction—to suitable reserve products, considering operational and regulatory constraints. Using historical data from the Danish railway operator DSB, we estimate the available flexibility for frequency containment reserves, focusing on controllable non-traction loads such as heating and air conditioning. To support market participation, we develop a low-resolution stochastic forecasting model based on conformal prediction, capable of estimating reserve availability for both day-ahead and hour-ahead horizons. Results show that a fleet of approximately 60 active trains can provide up to 10 MW of downward regulation and 1.5 MW of upward regulation from non-traction loads. Additionally, traction power from 25 trains can provide up to 5 MW of upward reserve in certain time periods. The findings demonstrate a viable pathway for integrating electric trains into flexibility markets, offering new revenue opportunities for operators and enhancing grid stability.

Source: eTransportation

DOI: 10.1016/j.etran.2025.100524

Authors: Agnes Nakiganda, Martin Lindahl, Callum Henderson, Agustí Egea-Àlvarez, Lars Herre

Institutions: Technical University of Denmark, KTH Royal Institute of Technology, Scottish Natural Heritage, National Records of Scotland, University of Strathclyde

Language: English

Topic: Smart Grid Energy Management

Subfield: Electrical and Electronic Engineering

Field: Engineering

Domain: Physical Sciences

SDGs: Industry, innovation and infrastructure, Affordable and clean energy, Climate action

Open Access status: hybrid

Estimated APC paid: $3,580