Mathematical artifacts in slope–intercept correlations invalidate biological inferences in aging research
Year: 2025
Type: article
Abstract: Cayuela et al. ( 1 ) interpret different aging trajectories between resident and migrating flamingos as support for trade-offs between early and late-life mortality using the Strehler-Mildvan correlation (SMC) ( 2 ), the mathematical association between intercept and the slope of a Gompertz model of aging.However, this correlation may not reliably indicate the underlying biology.Several studies assert that the SMC correlation can be artifactual ( 3 , 4 ), with Burger and Missov ( 5 ) emphasizing that it "should not be used to diagnose any biological, physiological, or evolutionary processes."The fundamental concern is that slope-intercept correlations are mathematically constrained independent of biological trade-offs.While Blomqvist addresses measurement error in slope-intercept correlations ( 6 ), a statistical issue, this is not the problem identified here.The larger concern applies even to sophisticated analyses using mixed models like those of Cayuela et al.: this problem has no statistical solution.Even when population parameters are perfectly known, the slope-intercept correlation differs systematically from the early-late correlation ( Table 1 , General Formula) because aging rates depend inherently upon starting values.The issue is not statistical but conceptual: SMCs measure mathematical relationships between derived quantities, not biological trade-offs.While Cayuela et al. acknowledge that the SMC can be artifactual and call for cautious interpretation, their reasoning attaches biological significance to among-group variation in that correlation.Their perspective that SMCs should remain consistent across groups if merely artifactual overlooks how these correlations originate.I show that such results can be re-interpreted in two ways that do not involve trade-offs.Table 1 illustrates how variation in SMCs across groups can manifest without trade-offs when groups exhibit different patterns of heteroskedasticity across ages (early-vs.late-age trait variation; Scenario 1) or different degrees of positive correlations (anti-trade-offs; Scenario 2) between early and late traits.This concern extends beyond the SMC to slope-intercept relationships involving aging.Aging is a derived measure (a difference); this complicates the interpretation of its variances and covariances (e.g., ref. 7 ).Formal evolutionary theory, including Williams' antagonistic pleiotropy model of aging ( 8 ), views correlations between the same traits exp ressed early versus late in life as manifestations of trade-offs.However, studies commonly examine slopeintercept correlations, incorrectly interpreting negative associations as evidence for antagonistic pleiotropy ( 9 ).Comparing across different traits does not avoid the problem (see Table 1 Cross-trait Corollary).Interestingly, one of Williams' more influential predictions was that "Rapid individual development should be correlated with rapid senescence."( 8 , 10 ).While the biological mechanisms that underlie this prediction may exist, empirical tests of such predictions may present difficulties arising from the mathematical entanglements following from the slope-intercept correlations discussed above.Treating aging as a fundamental rather than a derived trait leads to confusion between mathematical artifacts and
Author: Jacob A. Moorad
Institution: University of Edinburgh
Language: English
Subfield: Demography
Field: Social Sciences
Domain: Social Sciences
Open Access status: hybrid
OpenAlex ID: W4417134428