Year: 2025
Type: article
Study design: Observational Study
Abstract: BACKGROUNDMost research on the demographic impact of war focuses on how highly disruptive conflicts impact family life, often overlooking how less destructive wars shape family strategies.Understanding family adaptation in these contexts is essential for a nuanced view of war's demographic effects. OBJECTIVEThis study examines whether exposure to the Spanish Civil War (SCW) led families with reproductive flexibility to shift from larger families to a greater investment in childhood quality. METHODSWe use retrospective microdata from the 1991 Spanish Sociodemographic Survey, applying regression discontinuity designs to exploit variation in exposure to the SCW by birth cohort and provincial violence intensity.Outcomes analyzed include sibship size, child labor, and early child mortality. RESULTSExposure to the SCW reduced family size and improved child outcomes -less child labor and reduced early child mortality -especially among families with greater reproductive flexibility and in high-violence provinces.Robustness checks confirm that these effects are not driven by modernization and other secular trends. CONCLUSIONSWhen children are not explicit targets of violence and families retain certain agency, wars can prompt a strategic shift toward fewer, better-supported children.These adaptive responses concentrate among families able to adjust their reproductive plans and in areas most affected by violence.
Source: Demographic Research
Authors: Hector Cebolla-Boado, Dulce Manzano
Institution: Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas
Language: English
Subfield: Demography
Field: Social Sciences
Domain: Social Sciences
Open Access status: diamond
Funder: Agencia Estatal de Investigación
OpenAlex ID: W4417137345