Work

Concrete change: Exploring future scenarios for the supply of supplementary cementitious materials in the EU

Year: 2025

Type: article

Abstract: Cement, a crucial material in the construction industry, contributes about 8 % of global greenhouse gas emissions. While substituting clinker with supplementary cementitious materials (SCMs) is a key mitigation measure, SCM availability is expected to decline. In this work, a 2023–2050 scenario analysis predicts a decline in the supply of common SCMs in the EU, with fly ash supply decreasing from 8.5 Mt in 2025 to 1.9–2.7 Mt in 2035 and 0–1.1 Mt in 2045, and granulated blast furnace slag supply decreasing from 18 to 19 Mt in 2025 to 6.9–11.4 Mt in 2035 and 0–3.2 Mt in 2045. Thus, the supply of conventional SCMs will be insufficient to meet demand, even if demand for ordinary Portland cement is assumed to decline significantly in 2025–2045. Efforts to develop the production and logistics of alternatives in order to sustain a lower clinker-to-cement ratio are therefore needed.

Source: Developments in the Built Environment

DOI: 10.1016/j.dibe.2025.100831

Authors: Nina Chi Johansson, Johan Rootzén, Santiago Escudero Carmona

Institution: IVL Swedish Environmental Research Institute

Language: English

Topic: Concrete and Cement Materials Research

Subfield: Civil and Structural Engineering

Field: Engineering

Domain: Physical Sciences

SDGs: Climate action, Responsible consumption and production, Industry, innovation and infrastructure

Open Access status: gold

Estimated APC paid: $3,230