Performance of the operational ECMWF ensemble in predicting heavy rain associated with the Emilia‐Romagna flood in May 2023
Year: 2025
Type: article
Abstract: A devastating flood occurred in May 2023 in the Emilia‐Romagna region in northern Italy following a 2‐day period with widespread accumulated precipitation exceeding 150mm. The event was associated with a quasi‐stationary upper‐level cutoff cyclone. This study investigates the performance of the operational ECMWF ensemble prediction system in capturing the cutoff formation and the occurrence of intense precipitation. The key results are that forecasts with a 1‐day lead time were highly accurate and that a predictability jump occurred for lead times larger than 4 days, when the ensemble failed in representing the formation of the cutoff.
Source: Weather
DOI: 10.1002/wea.70017
Authors: Hei Tung Wu, Katharina Hartmuth, Heini Wernli
Institutions: ETH Zurich, Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science
Language: English
Subfield: Atmospheric Science
Field: Earth and Planetary Sciences
Domain: Physical Sciences
SDG: Climate action
Open Access status: hybrid
Estimated APC paid: $1,880
OpenAlex ID: W4417457093