Work

Societal burden of the US opioid epidemic over the next 15 years and the potential impact of effective non-opioid treatments for pain

Year: 2025

Type: article

Abstract: AIMS: To estimate the societal burden of the US opioid epidemic over the next 15 years and the potential impact of non-opioid pharmacotherapies. METHODS: A published and validated decision analytic dynamic Markov model was adapted to project the burden of the US opioid epidemic from 2025-2039, including the portion attributable to incident medical opioid use (IMOU). The model simulated adults with prescription opioid medical use (stratified by use for acute or chronic pain), non-medical prescription opioid use, illicit opioid use, and opioid use disorder (OUD). The annual and cumulative burden (number of OUD cases, overdoses, overdose deaths, and total costs) of the opioid epidemic and the burden attributable to IMOU was estimated from 2025-2039. The potential impact of replacing a portion of IMOU with non-opioid pharmacotherapies each year was evaluated beginning in 2025. RESULTS: The US opioid epidemic is projected to cost $367 billion (B) in 2025, increasing to $412B by 2039. The 15-year cumulative cost is estimated at $5.8 trillion (T), including $1.8 T in healthcare, $3.4 T in lost productivity, and $0.7 T in broader societal costs. IMOU will lead to 3.3 million new OUD cases, 110,000 overdose deaths, and $890B in total costs over the next 15 years. Replacing 10% of IMOU with non-opioid pharmacotherapies from 2025-2039 could prevent 323,000 OUD cases, 11,000 overdose deaths, and save $88B. Increasing IMOU replacement to 25% could prevent 808,000 OUD cases, 27,000 overdose deaths, and save $221B from 2025-2039. LIMITATIONS: As with any mathematical model, these findings represent projections of simulated populations, not precise forecasts. CONCLUSIONS: Findings suggest that the burden of the US opioid epidemic continues to increase, and effective non-opioid pharmacotherapies could reduce the burden by preventing incident OUD and associated downstream consequences.

Source: Journal of Medical Economics

DOI: 10.1080/13696998.2025.2602385