Evaluating wildfire policy impacts using synthetic controls: a data-driven assessment in Italy
Year: 2025
Type: article
Abstract: Background Wildfire policy effectiveness is difficult to evaluate, because fire activity depends on multiple interacting factors. Aims We conduct a data analysis study to determine (1) if synthetic control estimations are a suitable methodology for detecting the effect of wildfire policy interventions, and (2) if shifts in the wildfire regime in Italy can be attributed to the ‘Madia’s law’ policy intervention that in 2017 changed agency responsibility for firefighting in most regions. Methods We use synthetic controls with and without consideration of fire weather to model fire activity in aggregated and individual regions in Italy that were subject to the policy intervention, using a control pool of European countries. Key results Synthetic control is demonstrated as a suitable approach to model counterfactual trends in fire activity after a policy intervention. In the case of Madia’s law, models support the attribution of higher burned area and average fire size to the policy intervention in the first year after its implementation, though this effect appears to a varying extent across regions. Conclusions Data-driven approaches offer insights into policy effectiveness, but challenges remain owing to complex interacting factors. Implications Synthetic controls can complement expert-based assessments of wildfire policies in a range of flammable landscapes.
DOI: 10.1071/wf25107
Authors: Judith A. Kirschner, Johannes Kirschner, Davide Ascoli, Jose V. Moris, George Boustras, Gian Luca Spadoni
Institutions: University of Bern, European University Cyprus, ETH Zurich, Swiss Data Science Center, University of Turin, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement, Université de Montpellier, Institut National de Recherche pour l'Agriculture, l'Alimentation et l'Environnement, Institut de Recherche pour le Développement, Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique
Language: English
Topic: Fire effects on ecosystems
Subfield: Global and Planetary Change
Field: Environmental Science
Domain: Physical Sciences
SDGs: Climate action, Life on land
Open Access status: hybrid
OpenAlex ID: W4417478380