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Employment sentiment behavior during European economic crises: Time trends and persistence analysis

Year: 2025

Type: article

Abstract: This study analyzes employment sentiment dynamics in the Euro Area during recessions using long memory models and time–frequency causality tests. Results show strong persistence in expectations and evidence of bidirectional causality with recession indicators. Employment sentiment serves as a short- and medium-term predictor of recessions, while downturns have lasting effects on labor market perceptions. These findings highlight the relevance of sentiment indicators for macroeconomic forecasting and policy design.

Source: International Economics

DOI: 10.1016/j.inteco.2025.100670

Authors: María Isabel Luna Kanematsu, Manuel Monge, Juan Infante

Institutions: Universidad Francisco de Vitoria, Universidad Europea de Madrid, Universidad Villanueva

Language: English

Topic: Monetary Policy and Economic Impact

Subfield: General Economics, Econometrics and Finance

Field: Economics, Econometrics and Finance

Domain: Social Sciences

SDG: Decent work and economic growth

Open Access status: hybrid

Estimated APC paid: $3,660