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From Zero to Sixty: Explaining the Proliferation of Shi'a Militias in Iraq After 2003

Year: 2025
Type: article
Abstract: At the time of the U.S. invasion of Iraq in 2003, there were two main Shi’a militias operating in the country. When the U.S. withdrew eight years later, there were five such groups. By late 2016 there were well over 40 Shi’a militias active in Iraq. This thesis asks what has driven the proliferation of these groups; specifically, why has there been such a dramatic increase in the number of Iraqi Shi’a militias, not just in the number of men joining these groups. Studying almost 30 of the most prominent Shi’a militias that have emerged in Iraq since 2003, this thesis examines the factors that precipitated this proliferation. It finds that in contrast to the assumptions made by the existing literature on civil wars, militant group fragmentation only accounts for a small portion of the proliferation of the Shi’a militias in Iraq. In fact, most of the new militias that have emerged since 2003 were founded as entirely new, independent organizations, not as splinter groups. Furthermore, a large proportion of these new organizations were founded by political parties, suggesting a link between Iraqi electoral politics and militia proliferation. The data also implies that what splintering has occurred among the Shi’a militias in Iraq is likely not due to direct Iranian influence, as many observers have suggested. Instead, the causes of fragmentation among these groups appear to be relatively diverse, although the evidence suggests that the war in neighboring Syria has played an important role in the proliferation process.
DOI: 10.25740/pf810nm2047
Authors: NEWBY, LAUREN, CRENSHAW, MARTHA
Language: English
Open Access status: green
OpenAlex ID: W6889612685
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