Year: 2025
Type: preprint
Abstract: Predicting the future trajectory of complex and rapidly evolving systems remains a significant challenge, particularly in domains where data is scarce or unreliable. This study introduces a novel approach to qualitative forecasting by leveraging Large Language Models to conduct Delphi studies. The methodology was applied to explore the future evolution of Generative Artificial Intelligence, revealing insights into key factors such as geopolitical tensions, economic disparities, regulatory frameworks, and ethical considerations. The results highlight how LLM-based Delphi studies can facilitate structured scenario analysis, capturing diverse perspectives while mitigating issues such as respondent fatigue. However, limitations emerge in terms of knowledge cutoffs, inherent biases, and sensitivity to initial conditions. While the approach provides an innovative means for structured foresight, this method could be also considered as a novel form of reasoning. further research is needed to refine its ability to manage heterogeneity, improve reliability, and integrate external data sources.
Source: arXiv (Cornell University)
Authors: Bertolotti, Francesco, Mari, Luca
Language: English
Topic: Delphi Technique in Research
Subfield: Sociology and Political Science
Field: Social Sciences
Domain: Social Sciences
Open Access status: green
OpenAlex ID: W6891853178