Work

Exploring the validation results of ASPECS within ADVISOR

Year: 2024

Type: article

Abstract: Solar Energetic Particle (SEP) events can adversely affect space and ground-based systems. Space weather effects associated with SEP events can impact include communication and navigation systems, spacecraft electronics and operations, space power systems, crewed space missions, and commercial aircraft operations. In preparation for human exploration missions, such as Artemis, a clear need for transitioning SEP prediction models to operational readiness has emerged. In this work, the outputs of the validation of the different components/modules of the newly updated version of the ASPECS (Advanced Solar Particle Event Casting System) tool based on the SEPVAL (SEP Model Validation) 2023 sample are being presented. Emphasis is given on the comparison of the different inputs/catalogs and the resulting performance of the tool. Metrics such as the Probability of Detection (POD), the False Alarm Rate (FAR), the Percent Correct (PC), the Heidke Skill Score (HSS) and the True Skill Score (TSS) are generated for each of the different flavors of the newly implemented version of ASPECS. Comparisons between the predicted and observed peak proton fluxes, and SEP time profiles at E>10 MeV and E>100 MeV are put forth and discussed. This work was supported through the ADVISOR - OptimizAtion, DeliVery & Installation of the ASPECS tOol for Space WeatheR research within ISEP project, contract SMS0016862

Source: Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)

DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.13988432

Author: Papaioannou, Athanasios

Institution: National Observatory of Athens

Language: English

Topic: Solar and Space Plasma Dynamics

Subfield: Astronomy and Astrophysics

Field: Physics and Astronomy

Domain: Physical Sciences

Open Access status: green

Funder: National Aeronautics and Space Administration

Award: G3967273323