Work

A Mixture-of-Experts model to deal with the rural/urban dichotomy in small area estimation

Year: 2025

Type: article

Abstract: Small area estimation is a pivotal statistical methodology for generating reliable estimates of socio-economic indicators across small sub-populations. This research focuses on estimating the per capita wealth index in Bangladeshi upazilas, by integrating data from the Demographic and Health Survey with remote sensing covariates. The Fay–Herriot model, a prominent area-level model in small area literature, shows limitations when applied to our data. Notably, an exploratory analysis unveils two distinct regimes in the data-generating process, characterized by the rural/urban dichotomy. To tackle this issue, we extend the Fay–Herriot model through a Mixture-of-Experts, which classifies areas into groups within the estimation process. This enhances flexibility while preserving desirable properties, such as design consistency and interpretability of predictors. In addition, this family of models defines the mixing probabilities through a logistic regression, which proved to be particularly efficient in our applied setting, as demonstrated by a simulation study.

Source: Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C (Applied Statistics)

DOI: 10.1093/jrsssc/qlaf022

Authors: Aldo Gardini, Silvia De Nicolò, Enrico Fabrizi

Institutions: University of Bologna, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore

Language: English

Topic: demographic modeling and climate adaptation

Subfield: Management Science and Operations Research

Field: Decision Sciences

Domain: Social Sciences

SDGs: Reduced inequalities, No poverty, Sustainable cities and communities

Open Access status: hybrid

Estimated APC paid: $3,456