Growth of Cocoa Futures Prices and Their Impact on Confectionery production in Ukraine
Year: 2025
Type: article
Abstract: Relevance of the research topic. The prices of cocoa futures on the London Stock Exchange(LCCc1) have shown a significant increase, driven by global economic and climatic factors. In 2023–2024, historical price records were surpassed, which significantly impacted the cost of confectioneryproduction in importing countries, including Ukraine. For the national food industry, which is heavilydependent on cocoa bean imports, it is essential to assess the effects of these changes and developadaptive strategies to maintain product competitiveness.This paper examines the impact of rising cocoa prices (London LCCc1) on production, pricing, anddemand for chocolate confectionery products in Ukraine. Key factors affecting price formation areidentified.Problem Statement One of the main challenges faced by the Ukrainian confectionery industry isits dependence on imported raw materials, including cocoa–derived products such as cocoa liquor,cocoa butter, natural and alkalized cocoa powder, and chocolate. Volatile global prices for these rawmaterials and rising processing and production costs exacerbate the situation. In response to newpricing realities, Ukrainian producers are compelled to revise their technological processes, implementinnovations, and optimize supply chains. This necessitates a thorough analysis of price increases andtheir impact on the sector.Research Objectives The aim of the study is to analyze the dynamics of changes in cocoa futuresprices (LCCc1) and assess their impact on the economic activities of Ukrainian confectioneryenterprises.Research tasks:Analyze the key factors influencing cocoa price formation.Study the dependency of confectionery production costs in Ukraine on global raw material pricechanges.Propose adaptation strategies for Ukrainian producers.Research Methods The study applies multifactor analysis to identify the causes influencing theformation of cocoa derivative prices and to forecast future price trends. The statistical base for theresearch includes official sources such as Bloomberg, the International Cocoa Organization (ICCO),and the State Statistics Service of Ukraine. Comparative analysis was used to assess the impact ofglobal economic factors, including currency exchange rate fluctuations, changes in energy costs, andclimatic conditions in West Africa.Presentation of the Main Research Results The paper thoroughly examines the causes of theincrease in cocoa futures prices, including a decline in yields in Côte d’Ivoire due to unfavorable climaticconditions and growing demand for premium products in the EU and the US. It was shown that in2024, the average cocoa price increased by 34%, exceeding $8,500 per ton. In Ukraine, this led toa 20–25% rise in the production cost of confectionery products, forcing manufacturers to introducecocoa substitutes, diversify supplies, and raise prices for finished products.Application of Results The research findings can be applied:In the confectionery industry to adapt to changing market conditions and optimize raw materialcosts;In marketing strategic plans to assess pricing risks and forecast demand;In public policy for supporting national producers through import subsidies or tax incentives.
Authors: Zorenko, Ivan, Mostetska, Tetiana
Language: English
Subfield: Economics and Econometrics
Domain: Social Sciences
SDG: Zero hunger
Open Access status: hybrid
OpenAlex ID: W6911985183
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