The (possible) limits to growth fifty-three years later. A study carried out with the help of the AI
Year: 2025
Type: article
Abstract: The current world GPD growth per year of 1.5-1% is not sustainable in the medium term because the energy available vs demand, even with contribution of renewable sources, fission wind and, later, fusion and taking into account the consumption of strategic metals including recycling. A shortfall is foreseen around 1947.The major short- and medium-term consequences would be the economic collapse and stagnation, crisis of energy-intensive sectors, rising inflation, social unrest and riots, increased poverty, government fragility, international tensions and conflicts for energy and resources, global decline in living standards. Possible measures adopted by Governments would be: energy rationing and control, strong incentives for renewable energy sources, international collaboration, resource sharing, maximize energy saving and efficiency, acceleration developments of fusion energy plants. If, by then, or, better, before then, the GPD annual growth in advanced countries is progressively reduced to 0.3 % the energy system can meet demand through 2100 and beyond (with continued expansion of renewables, nuclear, and the introduction of fusion). This transition may face challenges like short-term economic, level of living and social or inequality, but it can lead to a society better aligned with ecological limits and human needs. The reduction of GDP growths to the 0.3% can act as a driver for transforming economic models, encouraging focus on sustainability, essential services, and social equity. The key is how societies manage the transition, invest in social infrastructure, innovation, and ensure fairness.
Author: Sivoli, Ario
Language: English
Field: Energy
Domain: Physical Sciences
SDG: Climate action
Open Access status: green
OpenAlex ID: W6912254026
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