Climate Simulation and Future Scenario Projection for the Zoige Ecological Region by CMIP6 High-Resolution Models
Year: 2025
Type: article
Abstract: As a unique alpine peat swamp wetland situated on the Tibetan Plateau， climate change in the Zoige ecological region not only impacts its own fragile ecological environment， but also exerts influence over the climate dynamics of the upper reaches of the Yellow River.Moreover， it plays crucial role in the climate stabilization of the western China.To investigate the simulation ability of the current high-resolution climate models in this area and to project the possible changes of the climate in this area in the future， this paper uses the four high-resolution climate models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Program Phase 6 （CMIP6）， AWI-CM-1-1-MR， EC-Earth3， EC-Earth3-CC， MPI-ESM1-2-HR， and MPI-ESM1-2-HR， compared with the CN05.1 observation dataset provided by the National Climate Center， to evaluate the simulation capability of CMIP6 high-resolution models on the temperature and precipitation of the Zoige ecological region， and to make future temperature and precipitation projection under four different Shared Socioeconomic Pathway （SSP） scenarios.The results show that all the high-resolution CMIP6 models can simulate the distribution pattern and trend of temperature in the Zoige ecological region， but all of them have the underestimation of temperature， especially in the western Zoige ecological region， where the correlation coefficient of multi-model ensemble （MME） with the annual average time series of the observed data is 0.75， and the MME is lower than the multi-year average of the observed data by 0.75 ℃.For the precipitation simulation， there is an obvious simulation overestimation in all models as well as MME， with an overestimation of 1.45 mm·d-1 in MME， and the correlation coefficient between MME and the observed data is 0.21 for the less satisfactory simulation of precipitation trend compared with the temperature.In 2100， the SSP scenarios with low to high emission concentrations of SSP1-2.6， SSP2-4.5， SSP3-7.0， and SSP5-8.5 scenarios are expected to have warming increases of about 1.8， 3.2， 5.2 and 5.8 °C， respectively， relative to the historical baseline period； the precipitation in the Zoige ecological region is expected to increase the most in the low SSP1-2.6 scenario compared with the historical period.The increase in 2100 was about 0.4 mm·d-1 compared to the historical period， while the medium to high concentration SSP2-4.5， SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios showed a slight increase and smaller difference in precipitation changes by the end of the 21st century， with increases ranging from 0.1 mm·d-1 to 0.2 mm·d-1.The results of the study can provide scientific basis for water resource management and climate change adaptation research in the upper reaches of the Yellow River， and are also of great significance to the ecological protection of Zoige wetland.
Authors: Qin HU, Dongmei QI, Changyan ZHOU, Xianhong MENG, Yaqiong LÜ, Xianyu YANG
Language: English
Subfield: Global and Planetary Change
Field: Environmental Science
Domain: Physical Sciences
SDGs: Climate action, Life on land
Open Access status: green
OpenAlex ID: W6921618535
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