Social media campaigning and voter behavior–evidence for the German federal election 2021
Year: 2025
Type: article
Abstract: We analyze the relationship between party campaigning on social media and the voting intentions voiced by respondents in a large representative survey in the German federal election campaign in 2021. We argue that online campaigns spread through the online and offline networks of the initial recipients – thereby influencing substantial parts of the electorate. We exploit inter-temporal, inter-regional, and inter-party differences in the intensity of campaigning by parties and candidates on Facebook and Twitter. In addition, we control for the respondents' choice in the previous federal election and a number of other personal characteristics. Using a multinomial logit model with alternative-specific constants, we find the probability of a respondent's intention to vote for a party to increase in the state-specific campaigning activities on social media of this party the days before. While the literature suggests that especially populist right-wing parties will benefit from campaigning on social media, we find the marginal impact to be significantly higher for Christian democrats, Social Democrats, and Greens than for the right-wing “Alternative für Deutschland”.
Authors: Aziz, Abeer Ibtisam, Bischoff, Ivo
Language: English
Topic: Social Media and Politics
Subfield: Communication
Field: Social Sciences
Domain: Social Sciences
Open Access status: green
OpenAlex ID: W6924907877
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