Year: 2025
Type: article
Abstract: During New Year’s Eve 2015/2016, the German city of Cologne witnessed mass sexual assaults and thefts by perpetrators described as having an Arab-African appearance. This paper studies whether the event in Cologne led to a backlash in crimes against refugees in Germany. Difference-in-differences regressions reveal a significant jump in anti-refugee crimes immediately after the event. This rise is driven by assaults and miscellaneous crimes and is more pronounced in North Rhine-Westphalia (where Cologne is located), in wealthier counties, in counties with a higher share of refugees, and in the counties that had a refugee reception center. The immediate rise in anti-refugee crimes is also higher in counties where a higher share of German suspects has been involved in crimes against foreign victims. Regarding longer-term repercussions, I find evidence for an anniversary effect a year later, i.e., a rise in anti-refugee crimes after the next New Year’s Eve.
Source: Working Paper Series
Author: Saoud, Mohamad Alhussein
Language: English
Subfield: Sociology and Political Science
Field: Social Sciences
Domain: Social Sciences
Open Access status: diamond
OpenAlex ID: W6926449830
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