Work

Expected Wage Losses Due to Trade-Related Job Displacements

Year: 2025

Type: article

Abstract: We use econometric estimation and an industry-specific economic simulation model, combined with data from U.S. manufacturing industries and individual U.S. workers, to estimate the expected wage losses of workers displaced due to tariff reductions. We find small but significant wage losses conditional on job displacement for 15 types of workers across seven manufacturing industries. The modeling framework that we introduce provides a practical tool for prospective analysis of the labor market effects of changes in tariffs that does not require data that specifically identify trade-related displacements. It also does not require significant historical variation in tariff rates or measures of confounding factors to serve as controls.

Source: Staff Working Papers: U.S. International Trade Commission

DOI: 10.71476/fswx-se27

Authors: Riker, David, Schrammel, Michael

Institution: United States International Trade Commission

Language: English

Topic: Global trade and economics

Subfield: General Economics, Econometrics and Finance

Field: Economics, Econometrics and Finance

Domain: Social Sciences

SDG: Decent work and economic growth

Open Access status: green

OpenAlex ID: W6940128551