Get started
Work

'Fast-track' sensitivity of freshwater fluxes to climate scenarios (D4.1)

Year: 2024
Type: article
Abstract: As global temperatures rise, Antarctica's grounded ice sheet and floating ice shelves are losing massat an accelerating rate, releasing meltwater into the Southern Ocean. This increasing freshwaterdischarge poses significant implications for global climate dynamics. We now have clear evidence thatfreshwater discharges from Antarctica (ice-shelf melting, iceberg calving, subglacial discharge andsurface runoff) are impacting the oceanography of the surrounding oceans, underscoring the urgentneed to integrate these effects into climate models. In previous CMIP rounds, models either assumedthat the ice sheets were in mass balance, or that discharge from the ice sheets was constant in time.Consequently, climate projections lack a detailed representation of spatiotemporal trends in ice-sheetfreshwater fluxes and their impact on the global climate system, introducing unquantifieduncertainties in future climate and sea-level projections. In this deliverable, we present a dataset thatoffers projections of freshwater fluxes from the Antarctic ice sheet and uncertainty estimates spanningfrom the present-day to the year 2300 that can be implemented as a forcing for climate models thatdo not include interactive ice sheets. These projections are derived from an ensemble of historicallycalibrated standalone ice sheet model projections generated with the Kori-ULB ice flow model(https://github.com/FrankPat/Kori-ULB), under different climate scenarios up to 2300. We assess thesensitivity and spread in freshwater fluxes projections in response to climate forcing and acomprehensive range of uncertain glaciological processes.
DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.14193230
Authors: Pattyn, Frank, COULON,, Violaine, DE RYDT, Jan, QIN, Qing
Language: English
Open Access status: green
OpenAlex ID: W6949236876
FWCI:
Cites:
Cited by:
Related to: