Managing Persistent Growth Shocks: Optimal Monetary and Fiscal Policies
Year: 2025
Type: article
Abstract: This paper studies the optimal monetary and fiscal policies for stabilizing business cycles driven by persistent total factor productivity (TFP) growth shocks. The demand of forward-looking households, so-called intertemporal optimizers, is identified as the pri mary source of instability, leading to supply-demand imbalances and procyclical inflation volatility. The effectiveness of monetary and fiscal policies shifts endogenously across dif ferent phases of TFP growth, with their impacts contingent on the prior implementation of the other policy. The paper demonstrates that policymakers, within a commitment framework, can achieve both inflation stability and full employment through a combina tion of adjusting interest rates and government spendings. The findings are then applied to evaluate the welfare effects of China’s macroeconomic policies during the 2003-2017 growth cycle. 本文研究了如何通过最优财政与货币政策组合应对持续性全要素 生产率(Total Factor Productivity, TFP)增速冲击所驱动的经济周期波动。 理论分析部分表明,以前瞻性跨期优化为决策基础的经济主体需求构成了经 济不稳定的根源,引发供需错配并加剧通胀率的顺周期波动。财政与货币政策的 有效性随 TFP 增长阶段而呈现内生性的动态转换,且任一政策的效果均显著依赖 于另一政策的先行实施情况。在承诺(full commitment)的宏观政策框架下,决 策者可以通过协同调整利率与政府支出,同步实现通胀稳定与充分就业的目标。 在数量分析部分,本文选取 2003—2017 年中国 TFP 增速“加速—停滞”的 完整周期作为案例,系统比较了理论模型推演的拉姆齐最优政策与现实政策,不 仅识别了二者的偏离,还基于当时的宏观经济数据分析这些偏离对经济的实际影 响,评估了现实政策的福利效果。以史为鉴,将宏观经济政策理论与中国商业周 期的历史数据紧密结合开展研究,所获得的结论将为我国应对新一轮增长周期提 供科学决策的学理依据。
Author: Yuan, Yufei
Institution: University of International Business and Economics
Language: English
Domain: Social Sciences
Open Access status: green
OpenAlex ID: W6949424428
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