Work

Autoregressive Behavior of Aviation Weather Forecasts

Year: 2025

Type: article

Abstract: We analyze U.S. Terminal Aerodrome Forecasts (TAFs) for autocorrelation of forecast changes for a given aerodrome and hour between successive forecasts. We find a pessimistic and overreacting bias. When forecasters adjust a TAF, they tend to back out some of their changes in a later TAF. This tendency is much more pronounced when forecasters worsen a forecast than when they improve it.

Source: Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)

DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.14954568

Authors: Haynold, Oliver M., Ylitalo, Neal

Language: English

Topic: Forecasting Techniques and Applications

Subfield: Management Science and Operations Research

Field: Decision Sciences

Domain: Social Sciences

Open Access status: green

OpenAlex ID: W6949471712

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