Probable Stabilization Theory - Belief Change as a Threshold Process Experiment
Year: 2025
Type: article
Abstract: This study proposes a behavioral experiment to test whether belief change operates as a threshold process rather than a gradual shift. Drawing from Probable Stabilization Theory (PST), the model predicts that belief revision occurs only when cumulative entropy — conflicting evidence, surprise, or internal doubt — exceeds a stability threshold set by emotional and contextual anchors. Below this threshold, new information is assimilated without altering the belief’s core stabilization; above it, a rapid collapse–re-anchoring sequence occurs. Participants are exposed to a sequence of persuasive statements on a contentious topic, delivered in randomized order with controlled strength and source credibility. Intermittent “micro-interrupts” (attention resets) are inserted to prevent simple primacy/recency effects. Belief strength is measured continuously via real-time Likert sliders and after each block. The prediction is a stepwise pattern: long plateaus of belief stability punctuated by abrupt shifts, with higher thresholds in emotionally anchored beliefs. Pre-registered claims: Belief change distributions will cluster into plateau + sudden drop shapes, not smooth curves. Stronger emotional anchoring will raise the collapse threshold and reduce total shifts. Threshold dynamics will be consistent within participants across topics, suggesting an individual cognitive “signature.” PST ContextThis experiment targets the social–cognitive side of Probable Stabilization Theory (PST), which models thought as iterative stabilization constrained by anchors and destabilized by entropy spikes. In this view, belief change is not incremental persuasion but a discrete loop reset once a stability threshold is breached. Identifying these thresholds in controlled settings would not only inform persuasion and misinformation research but also validate PST’s broader claim that both neural and social cognition operate through the same loop architecture. **Keywords:** Probable Stabilization Theory, cognitive stabilization, entropy and cognition, anchors and stabilizers, collapse and re-anchoring, cognitive loop model, belief revision, threshold process in cognition, persuasion, emotional anchoring, misinformation resilience, experimental design, cross-domain theory, loop-based cognition, destabilization events, information anchoring
Author: Puljak, Ognjen
Language: English
Subfield: General Decision Sciences
Field: Decision Sciences
Domain: Social Sciences
Open Access status: green
OpenAlex ID: W6949694758
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