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Preliminary Assessment of Israel's Intelligence Failure: Strategic Surprise and Deception

Year: 2025

Type: article

Abstract: A case-study of Israel’s intelligence failure of 7 October 2023 identifies strategic surprise and deception, the breakdown of the devil’s advocate system, and Israeli hubris in policy as foundational flaws in intelligence tradecraft. The events of 7 October 2023, ostensibly avoidable through more robust intelligence foresight, nevertheless resulted in a successful and violent tactical assault with regional repercussions. A key takeaway from this case is that the fostering of continuous critical review and scenario testing within the intelligence community (IC) addresses blind spots and anticipates unconventional and otherwise unimaginable threats to national security.

Source: Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)

DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.15258749

Author: Julia K., Shufro

Institution: Tufts University

Language: English

Topic: Intelligence, Security, War Strategy

Subfield: Political Science and International Relations

Field: Social Sciences

Domain: Social Sciences

SDG: Peace, justice, and strong institutions

Open Access status: green

OpenAlex ID: W6949731430

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