Work

Should we use Multilevel Regression and Post-stratification when simulating area-level population outcomes?

Year: 2025

Type: conference-paper

Abstract: Estimating unknown outcomes at small-area population level is a routine task in GIScience. We ask whether Multilevel Regression and Poststratification (MRP), an approach to simulating public opinion, might overcome deficiencies in spatial microsimulation (SPM), the de facto approach in applied spatial analysis. Using microdata from Health Survey for England and 2021 Census tables, we evaluate MRP and SPM at estimating a known, groundtruthed, health outcome. When parameterised with few constraints, there are only slight differences in estimation between the two approaches. With more, and geographic, constraints, often desired by spatially-inclined researchers, errors begin to accumulate in SPM estimates that do not appear in those arrived at via MRP.

Source: White Rose Research Online (University of Leeds, The University of Sheffield, University of York)

DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.15230380

Authors: Beecham, Roger, Clark, Stephen

Institution: University of Leeds

Language: English

Topic: demographic modeling and climate adaptation

Subfield: Management Science and Operations Research

Field: Decision Sciences

Domain: Social Sciences

Open Access status: green

OpenAlex ID: W6949735923

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