Reduction in the potential distribution of bee species in low latitudes under different climate change scenarios: conservation implications
Year: 2025
Type: article
Abstract: To quantify the climate-change impact on bees and guide conservation planning, we employed ecological niche modeling (ENM) driven by three representative concentration pathways (RCP 4.5, 6.0 and 8.5) and three general circulation models (CCSM4, HadGEM2-AO and MIROC-ESM-CHEM). Across all scenarios and GCMs, suitable climatic space for every bee species is projected to contract, with the steepest declines in low-latitude regions. Range contractions vary from 8% to 87%, with wide-ranging species exhibiting greater resilience. Furthermore, Mean annual temperature (Bio1), annual precipitation (Bio12) and elevation collectively explain the largest share of interspecific distributional dynamics for each bee species. The median elevation of suitable pollinator habitat is projected to rise by 35 to 450m. The suitable centroids of bee species are expected to migrate 65 to 137 km south-eastwards, except for A. florea. Model projections indicate a widespread decline in environmental suitability for pollinators. Alarmingly, projected suitable occupied by habitat protected areas is relatively low, implying limited conservation efficacy under future climates. Accordingly, our findings provide a quantitative foundation for stakeholders to maximize the ecological and economic value of pollinators and develop smarter plant protection strategies in a warming world.
Authors: Xinggang Tang, Zheng He, Yue Deng, Yingdan Yuan, Kaiming Zeng
Institutions: Ministry of Natural Resources, Yangzhou University
Language: English
Subfield: Ecological Modeling
Field: Environmental Science
Domain: Physical Sciences
SDGs: Life on land, Climate action
Open Access status: gold
Estimated APC paid: $3,077
OpenAlex ID: W6965025394