Work

Impact of Rising International Trade Costs on U.S. Workers by Demographic Group

Year: 2025

Type: article

Abstract: Riker (2023) provides a modeling framework for estimating the exposure of different groups of U.S. workers to international trade using employment-weighted averages of the trade intensities of U.S. manufacturing industries. In this paper, we reapply this model in a retrospective analysis. We estimate the short-run impact of rising international trade costs on U.S. manufacturing imports from 2021 to 2022 on the employment of U.S. workers in groups defined by their race, sex, age, and educational attainment. We also introduce two extensions to the model. First, we quantify the dilution of the employment effects in an all-worker average that includes non-manufacturing workers. Second, we model the effects of changes in trade costs on imported intermediate goods, as well as changes in trade costs on imported final goods.

Source: Staff Working Papers: U.S. International Trade Commission

DOI: 10.71476/es3p-as48

Author: Riker, David

Institution: United States International Trade Commission

Language: English

Topic: Global trade and economics

Subfield: General Economics, Econometrics and Finance

Field: Economics, Econometrics and Finance

Domain: Social Sciences

SDGs: Decent work and economic growth, Reduced inequalities

Open Access status: green

OpenAlex ID: W6977691613

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