Year: 2025
Type: preprint
Abstract: Our empirical results show an impressive fit with the theoretical Sharpe formula of a trend-following strategy depending on the parameter of the signal, which was derived by by Grebenkov and Serror (2014). That empirical fit convinces us that a mean-reversion process with only one time scale is enough to model, in a precise way, the reality of the trend-following mechanism at the average scale of CTAs and as a consequence, using only one simple EMA, appears optimal to capture the trend. As a consequence, using a complex basket of different complex indicators as signal, does not seem to be so rational or optimal and exposes to the risk of cherry-picking.
Source: arXiv (Cornell University)
Author: Valeyre, Sebastien
Language: English
Subfield: Finance
Domain: Social Sciences
Open Access status: green
OpenAlex ID: W6979320205
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