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PERT estimate is an under-estimate. Visual evidence from computational statistics

Year: 2025

Type: article

Abstract: PERT (Program Evaluation and Review Technique) estimates are used in project management to estimate the total project duration and cost. One limitation of PERT estimates is that it underestimates the true mean. This note provides a visual appreciation of this limitation by performing a Monte Carlo simulation of a simple project network. It also explores how Monte Carlo simulations can be useful when other assumptions of PERT estimates (independence of tasks) are not met.

Source: Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)

DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.16977593

Author: Dammalapati, Sai Krishna

Language: English

Topic: Resource-Constrained Project Scheduling

Subfield: Management Science and Operations Research

Field: Decision Sciences

Domain: Social Sciences

Open Access status: green

OpenAlex ID: W7078288257

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