The Specter of a US Sovereign Debt Default: An Economic and Policy Analysis
Year: 2025
Type: article
Abstract: This paper provides a comprehensive analysis of the probability, triggers, and potential impacts of a United States sovereign debt default in the coming decade. Synthesizing historical precedents, economic theory, and contemporary data, we argue that while a de jure default remains a low-probability, high-impact event, the US is entering a new era of fiscal vulnerability where de facto default scenarios—such as high inflation, financial repression, and strategic policy shifts—become increasingly plausible. We introduce a novel theoretical framework, the "Sovereign Resilience Index" (SRI), to quantify the erosion of traditional US debt tolerance. The paper models the cascading economic consequences of various default scenarios, from a technical debt ceiling-induced crisis to a full-blown strategic default, projecting severe impacts on global interest rates, inflation, unemployment, and the US Dollar's reserve currency status. Finally, we propose a portfolio of preventative policy measures, including fiscal reforms, innovative debt instruments, and a new global monetary framework, designed to mitigate these existential risks.
Author: Tan, Kwan Hong
Institution: Singapore University of Social Sciences
Language: English
Subfield: Economics and Econometrics
Domain: Social Sciences
Open Access status: green
OpenAlex ID: W7082362058
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