Work

Asymmetric response of Arctic sea ice and navigation to carbon emissions

Year: 2025

Type: article

Abstract: Arctic navigability has far-reaching socioeconomic consequences, but how the navigation will respond to negative carbon emissions proposed to mitigate global warming remains unclear. Based on the idealized CO 2 ramp-up (284.7–1138.8) × 10 –6 and symmetric ramp-down (1138.8–284.7) × 10 –6 simulations, we demonstrate asymmetric responses of sea ice conditions to the symmetric CO 2 forcing. At the same CO 2 level, Arctic sea ice extent and thickness in the ramp-down period reduce by 8.1%–27.2% and 18.6%–27.9% relative to the ramp-up period, respectively. Consequently, the navigable area and season show an additional increase (by 16%–32% and 1 mon, respectively) when the CO 2 returns to the initial level. This contributes to a northward migration in the optimal shipping routes, with shortened voyage along the Northern Sea Route (–4.0% [–16.6%, 15.0%]) and Northwest Passage (–2.7% [–10.3%, 8.5%]). Despite using the idealized carbon dioxide remove scenario, our results highlight the asymmetric response of Arctic sea ice and navigation to carbon emissions and may serve as an important addition to the assessment of the effect of potential carbon removal in future.

Source: Advances in Climate Change Research

DOI: 10.1016/j.accre.2025.09.003

Authors: Ting Wei, Wen-Jie Dong, Yue-Li Chen, Wei Qi

Institutions: Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather, Sun Yat-sen University, Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory (Zhuhai)

Language: English

Topic: Arctic and Antarctic ice dynamics

Subfield: Atmospheric Science

Field: Earth and Planetary Sciences

Domain: Physical Sciences

SDGs: Climate action, Life below water

Open Access status: gold

Estimated APC paid: $2,000