Work

Defining Pre-Probabilistic Insights: A Conceptual Advancement for Systemic Risk Assessment and Decision-Making

Year: 2025

Type: article

Abstract: This paper introduces a novel concept, "Pre-Probabilistic Insights," which innovatively advances risk management and decision science within the original Changification Framework. This framework posits that system dynamics shape outcome likelihoods (Apanisile, 2025a). Probabilistic models, reliant on historical data, struggle with complex adaptive systems (Taleb, 2007). Pre-Probabilistic Insights (PPI) focuses on assessing systemic states before probabilistic forecasts, using the innovative Risk Pressure Level Assessment (RPLA) to measure fragility and resilience (Apanisile, 2025a, 2025b). RPLA may detect early-warning signals of systemic shifts, potentially before probabilistic methods identify changes in outcome likelihoods, offering a foundation for proactive decision-making.

Source: Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)

DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.17227474

Author: Apanisile Temitope Samuel

Language: English

Topic: Leadership, Behavior, and Decision-Making Studies

Subfield: Management Science and Operations Research

Field: Decision Sciences

Domain: Social Sciences

Open Access status: green

OpenAlex ID: W7083712226

FWCI:

Cites:

Cited by:

Related to: