Predictive Modeling and Multivariate Analysis of Core Food Security Indicators in Morocco
Year: 2025
Type: article
Abstract: This study presents a multivariate analysis of key food security indicators in Morocco between 2000 and 2023. The first section introduces the theoretical framework of linear regression and principal component analysis (PCA). A linear regression model was then applied to examine the relationship between the prevalence of undernourishment and the Consumer Price Index (CPI in %), yielding a high coefficient of determination (R² = 95%). The regression model demonstrated that a one-unit increase in CPI leads to a 0.04% rise in undernourishment prevalence. The PCA of food security indicators highlights two distinct dimensions that shape nutritional outcomes. The first principal component, accounting for most of the variance, shows strong positive correlations with dietary energy adequacy (0.92), minimum caloric requirements (0.98), and per capita GDP (0.96), while inversely relating to food supply instability (-0.81). This axis essentially measures a nation's economic strength and food system resilience. The second component exclusively tracks undernourishment metrics, with near-perfect alignment to both the rate (0.98) and absolute numbers (1.00) of underfed populations. This dimension directly reflects the human toll of food insecurity. Importantly, these components are statistically independent (orthogonal), which reveals an important reality of policies: economic growth and enhancements to the food system (Dimension 1) do not translate into reduced hunger (Dimension 2). This separation reinforces the necessity to engage in bi-focal approaches to fighting food insecurity - macroeconomic policies strengthen the food system while humanitarian action focuses on nutrition for specific populations. These results show that food security exists on different levels and requires solutions that target the systemic economic level and humanitarian levels to address the multi-faceted concept of hunger and malnutrition. Ultimately, ARIMA forecasting is utilized to forecast trends for Dietary Energy Adequacy, Prevalence of Undernourishment (% of population), and Number of Undernourished People between 2025 and 2028. Forecasts suggests a gradual improvement in the following areas: Dietary Energy Adequacy rising from143.1 to 145.9 kcal/cap/day, Prevalence of Undernourishment drops from 5.88% to 5.19%, and Number of Undernourished People falling from 2.09 to 1.96 million. This evidence offers substantial information for policy makers to improve food security policies in Morocco.
Author: Journal of Theoretical and Applied Information Technology
Language: English
Domain: Life Sciences
Open Access status: green
OpenAlex ID: W7084414045
FWCI:
Cites:
Cited by:
Related to: