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Pacific Geopolitics – New Caledonia and Bougainville

Year: 2025
Type: report
Abstract: The paper analyses the actual independence debates in the Pacific. The French territory New Caledonia is planned to be transformed into a state in 2026 while the autonomous region of Bougainville plans declaration of independence from Papua New Guinea on 01 September 2027. There are already several Pacific Island States which are independent states, but associated to another state. These models have a great influence on the current independence debate in both cases. New Caledonia has approximately 268,000 inhabitants; two-fifths are settlers from France, one-fifth are immigrants from Asia and the Pacific and two-fifths are indigenous Kanaks. The resources, the proximity to Australia, the importance for the stability of French Pacific territories and the geopolitical competition between the West and China are reasons for the geopolitical importance of New Caledonia. In 1984, the Kanak and Socialist National Liberation Front (FLNKS) was founded as a coalition of pro-independence political parties. The Nouméa Accord of 1998 allowed New Caledonia to hold three independence referendums with voting rights restricted to those living in New Caledonia before 1998, known as ‘freezing’ of electoral votes. All three referendums ended with a vote against independence (2018, 2020 and 2021). An attempt by the French government to ‘unfreeze’ the election rolls in 2024 resulted in massive violence on 13 May 2024 and the declaration of state of emergency by France. In response, France tries to establish the State of New Caledonia in the Bougival Agreement which is similar to the Associated State models in the region. The “État de Nouvelle-Calédonie” would still be a part of France, but with dual nationality and shared sovereignty where France would retain authority over defense, justice, security, and currency. However, this requires a change of the French constitution with a three-fifth majority and a local referendum in New Caledonia in early 2026. If the State of New Caledonia could be established, this could cause a domino effect on other French territories like French-Polynesia which already has independence supporters. Bougainville is an autonomous province of Papua New Guinea PNG with aproximately300,000 inhabitants. During the era of colonialism, Bougainville was separated from its neighbors on the Solomon Islands and became part of Papua New Guinea after World War 2. Papua New Guinea was under control of Australia as a United Nations trusteeship until 1975 when it became independent. Bougainville tried to get independence apart from Papua New Guinea. A dispute about the important Panguna copper mine which caused social, political, and environmental issues resulted in the civil war in Bougainville from 1988 to 1997 where troops from Papua New Guinea were fighting against the Bougainville Revolutionary Army BRA. This resulted in 15,000-20,000 deaths. In 2001, the Bougainville Peace Agreement (BPA) was signed. An Autonomous Bougainville Government (ABG) was formally established in 2005. In 2019, 97.7% of Bougainville voted for independence. The roadmap to independence takes longer than expected, but both sides try to solve the problems by dialogue and not by confrontation. Papua New Guinea is of major strategic importance due to its central location in the Indo-Pacific and the security and stability of the country has priority for external actors. Further issues are the economic stability of both Papua New Guinea and Bougainville. If New Caledonia and Bougainville become independent, there are concerns that the independence could start a fragmentation process which could lead to the dissolution of many Pacific Islands States into very small and microstates. But if the independence does not come, the conflicts may return which is a strategic dilemma for all involved parties.
DOI: 10.48693/779
Author: Saalbach, Klaus
Language: English
Subfield: Demography
Open Access status: green
OpenAlex ID: W7090240011
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