Assessing “Dangerous Climate Change”: Required Reduction of Carbon Emissions to Protect Young People, Future Generations and Nature
Year: 2013
Type: review
Abstract: We assess climate impacts of global warming using ongoing observations and paleoclimate data. We use Earth's measured energy imbalance, paleoclimate data, and simple representations of the global carbon cycle and temperature to define emission reductions needed to stabilize climate and avoid potentially disastrous impacts on today's young people, future generations, and nature. A cumulative industrial-era limit of ∼500 GtC fossil fuel emissions and 100 GtC storage in the biosphere and soil would keep climate close to the Holocene range to which humanity and other species are adapted. Cumulative emissions of ∼1000 GtC, sometimes associated with 2°C global warming, would spur "slow" feedbacks and eventual warming of 3-4°C with disastrous consequences. Rapid emissions reduction is required to restore Earth's energy balance and avoid ocean heat uptake that would practically guarantee irreversible effects. Continuation of high fossil fuel emissions, given current knowledge of the consequences, would be an act of extraordinary witting intergenerational injustice. Responsible policymaking requires a rising price on carbon emissions that would preclude emissions from most remaining coal and unconventional fossil fuels and phase down emissions from conventional fossil fuels.
Source: PLoS ONE
Authors: James Hansen, Pushker Kharecha, Makiko Sato, Valerie Masson-Delmotte, Frank Ackerman, David J. Beerling, Paul J. Hearty, Ove Hoegh-Guldberg, Shi-Ling Hsu, Camille Parmesan, Johan Rockstrom, Eelco J. Rohling, Jeffrey Sachs, Pete Smith, Konrad Steffen, Lise Van Susteren, Karina von Schuckmann, James C. Zachos
Institutions: Columbia University, Goddard Institute for Space Studies, Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines, Commissariat à l'Énergie Atomique et aux Énergies Alternatives, Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace, Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, University of Sheffield, University of North Carolina Wilmington, The University of Queensland, Florida State University, The University of Texas at Austin, University of Plymouth, Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University, Australian National University, University of Southampton, University of Aberdeen, Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research, ETH Zurich, Harvard University, Ifremer, University of California, Santa Cruz
Language: English
Subfield: Economics and Econometrics
Domain: Social Sciences
SDG: Climate action
Open Access status: gold
Estimated APC paid: $2,382
OpenAlex ID: W2112698403