Algebraic extinction in acyclic spreading models: explicit counterexamples, genericity and support-checkable repairs
Year: 2025
Type: preprint
Abstract: Growing literatures on epidemic and rumor dynamics show that infection and information coevolve. We present a unified framework for modeling the spread of infection and information: a general class of interaction-driven fluid-limit models expressed as coupled ODEs. The class includes the SIR epidemic model, the Daley-Kendall rumor model, and many extensions. For this general class, we derive theoretical results: under explicit graph-theoretic conditions, we obtain a classification of asymptotic behavior and motivate a conjecture of exponential decay for vanishing states. When these conditions are violated, the classification can fail, and decay may become non-exponential (e.g., algebraic). In deriving the main result, we establish asymptotic stability and $L^1$-integrability properties for state variables. Alongside these results, we introduce the dependency graph that captures outflow dependencies and offers a new angle on the structure of this model class. Finally, we illustrate the results with several examples, including a heterogeneous rumor model and a rumor-dependent SIR model, showing how small changes to the dependency graph can flip asymptotic behavior and reshape epidemic trajectories.
Source: arXiv (Cornell University)
Authors: Chan, K. M. D., Crommelin, D. T., Mandjes, M. R. H.
Institution: Leiden University
Language: English
Field: Medicine
Domain: Health Sciences
Open Access status: green
Award: G565383568
OpenAlex ID: W7104008898
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