TransformAr Project - D2.5 - Integrated Comparative Risk Assessment
Year: 2025
Type: article
Abstract: The present work provides an innovative integrated climate risk assessment covering the entire European domain at NUTS 2 resolution and focusing on five socio-economic sectors relevant to the TransformAr mission, namely agriculture, fishery, tourism, coastal flooding and river flooding. The assessment focuses on two opposite future emission scenarios (ssp126 and ssp585) and two future periods (2015-2045 and 2035-2065), defining the most impacted regions as those showing the strongest negative variation in sectorial productivity and damage losses compared to the historical period. With respect to the traditional IPCC approach, the hazard component of climate risk is replaced with the “intermediate impact” produced by climate change on the studied sectors and calculated by dedicated bio-physical models. This approach allows to have a more comprehensive and integrated estimate of the bio-physical effects of climate change on the studied systems compared to assessing the impacts through single climatic risk drivers. Differences between single climate risk drivers as hazards and using intermediate impact through biophysical methods are key element of uncertainty in the evaluation for policy makers and available across different risk assessment products in the project. The regional socio-economic exposure and vulnerability are estimated through a range of indicators and combined with the intermediate impact to produce the risk assessment. The results point out a substantial north-south gradient of climate risk. The principal cause of this risk imbalance across the continent is the gap in exposure and vulnerability, with southern European regions scoring less in most of the socio-economic, technological and institutional parameters used in the assessment. River flooding is an exception to this trend, as it is strongly related to the location of major streams and assets making it more significant in central and eastern Europe. A second source of risk inequality is identified between coastal and land-locked regions, with the former generally having a higher aggregated climate risk due to the impacts of climate change on fishery and coastal flooding in addition to the other sectorial risks.
Authors: Rivosecchi, Andrea, Trabucco, Antonio
Language: English
Subfield: Economics and Econometrics
Domain: Social Sciences
Open Access status: green
OpenAlex ID: W7105905933
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