Work

Projected landscape-scale repercussions of global action for climate and biodiversity protection

Year: 2023

Type: article

Abstract: Habitat loss and biotic homogenisation are undermining the stable supply of nature’s contributions to people (NCP) that underpin the long-term productivity and resilience in farmed landscapes. Growing demand for land-based products, and global ambitions for climate and area-based protection are likely to increase land competition, which could further drive intensification and landscape simplification. Yet, little is known about the repercussions of such global land-use transitions for key regulating NCP in farmed landscapes. By using an integrated, globally consistent modelling approach, we analyse how global land-use dynamics could drive fine-scale changes in landscape structure, pollination, and soil erosion across different land-use futures. Here we show that, if not addressed, increased land competition and concurrent landscape-scale changes could reinforce global negative trends for key regulating NCP. However, we also find that global efforts towards land carbon uptake and biodiversity conservation could be augmented to produce co-benefits in agricultural settings. Our results indicate that integrating at least 20 % (semi-)natural habitat into farmed landscapes would not cause trade-offs of carbon emissions or natural land conversion, despite shifts in spatial land-use patterns. Our findings underline the importance of considering landscape-scale repercussions while assessing changes in multiple material and regulating NCP across different land-use futures.

Source: Nature Communications

DOI: 10.1038/s41467-023-38043-1